Rest of Season Projection
NolanCategoryTristan
8HR →11
47R ←28
47RBI →59
2SB →3
.246AVG ←.239
Current Season
NolanCategoryTristan
8HR ←4
28R ←11
28RBI ←23
1SB1
.270AVG ←.237
What Each Player's System Trusts
Nolan Arenado
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.336)
Tristan Gray
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.305)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Nolan Arenado: 8 HR / 47 R. Tristan Gray: 11 HR / 28 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).