Rest of Season Projection
OwenCategoryTaylor
9HR →10
32R →51
56RBI ←24
6SB ←3
.186AVG →.258
Current Season
OwenCategoryTaylor
5HR ←2
17R →36
30RBI ←17
3SB ←2
.234AVG →.248
What Each Player's System Trusts
Owen Caissie
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.282 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 41% is stable and high — caps the floor
Taylor Ward
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.350, +0.035 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Owen Caissie: 9 HR / 32 R. Taylor Ward: 10 HR / 51 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).