246 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Owen Caissie
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.309); strikeout rate 39% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.342 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 6AVG .207R 17RBI 31SB 3
Caissie is a hold — real gap between contact quality and results.
ROS projects HR 5 YTD → 6 ROS, AVG .234 YTD → .207 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.309)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 39% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.342 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.8 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.8 mphvs his norm —
129 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %48.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.1%vs his norm —
129 / 50 BBE
Barrel %16.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+8.3%vs his norm —
129 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.309
lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —
246 / 160 PA
wOBA.322
lg avg .315 ▲+.007vs his norm —
246 / 200 PA
Strikeout %39.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+17.0%vs his norm —
246 / 60 PA
Walk %7.3%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
246 / 120 PA
BABIP.342
lg avg .295 ▲+.047vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
129 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —
246 / 50 PA
Chase %30.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
246 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 16.3%→14.6%signal6 HR — Barrel% 16.3% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 14.6%.
BABIP 0.342→0.331 regressednoise.207 AVG — BABIP 0.342 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.329 (xBA 0.216) → 0.331.
on-base + lineup17 R — his run rate over ~166 projected PA.
slugging + lineup31 RBI — his RBI rate over ~166 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (3 in 52 G) over ~166 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.