Rest of Season Projection
CeddanneCategoryTaylor
9HR →10
36R →49
36RBI ←23
9SB ←3
.247AVG →.258
Current Season
CeddanneCategoryTaylor
5HR ←2
23R →36
23RBI ←17
6SB ←2
.275AVG ←.248
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ceddanne Rafaela
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.344 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.297 is 0.048 below the surface — regression coming
Taylor Ward
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.348, +0.033 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Ceddanne Rafaela: 9 HR / 36 R. Taylor Ward: 10 HR / 49 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).