Rest of Season Projection
CeddanneCategoryIan
10HR →13
38R →58
38RBI →46
10SB ←3
.249AVG ←.184
Current Season
CeddanneCategoryIan
5HR →13
23R →39
23RBI →31
6SB ←2
.275AVG ←.230
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ceddanne Rafaela
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.340 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.303 is 0.041 below the surface — regression coming
Ian Happ
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.341, +0.026 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
Ceddanne Rafaela: 10 HR / 38 R. Ian Happ: 13 HR / 58 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).