MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Alex Bregman
431 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Alex Bregman

CHC·3B
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.310); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSHR 3AVG .227R 21RBI 14SB 2

Bregman is a hold — league-average skill, no edge.

His expected wOBA is .310, essentially league average at .315, and with 431 plate appearances, that number is reliable. His actual wOBA matches it at .312 — no luck pulling the line in either direction. The contact quality is a tick below league: 87.9 mph exit velocity, a 36.6% hard-hit rate, and a 4.2% barrel rate, all below their respective league averages across stable samples. He draws walks at an above-average clip (11.4%) and strikes out less than average (15.3%), but the underlying batted-ball production never lifts the profile above the median. There is nothing unstable driving his line, and the xwOBA has been stepping down across the season. If you own him, keep him. If you don't, there is no edge to chase. His 3 HR / 21 R / 14 RBI / 2 SB / .227 AVG line is a rotational streaming-only hold, not a pickup.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %4.2%—−1.9% ▼vs his ~6.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.310)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.9 mph
87.9 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.1 mphvs his norm —
309 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %36.6%
36.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.4%vs his norm —
309 / 50 BBE
Barrel %4.2%
norm4.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm −1.9% ▼
309 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.310
.310*
lg avg .315 ▼−.005vs his norm —
431 / 160 PA
wOBA.312
.312*
lg avg .315 ▼−.003vs his norm —
431 / 200 PA
Strikeout %15.3%
15.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
431 / 60 PA
Walk %11.4%
11.4%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
431 / 120 PA
BABIP.267
norm.267*
lg avg .295 ▼−.028vs his norm −.005 ▼BABIP is below his ~.273 norm — expect it to rise.
309 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.6%
6.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.4%vs his norm —
431 / 50 PA
Chase %21.3%
21.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−7.2%vs his norm —
431 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 4.2%→4.9%signal3 HR — Barrel% 4.2% (signal) lifted to career ~6.1% → projected 4.9%.
BABIP 0.267→0.268 regressednoise.227 AVG — BABIP 0.267 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.268 (xBA 0.238) → 0.268.
on-base + lineup21 R — his run rate over ~204 projected PA.
slugging + lineup14 RBI — his RBI rate over ~204 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (2 in 59 G) over ~204 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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