MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Alex Bregman
702 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Alex Bregman

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.327); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Bregman is a hold — league-average skill, nothing unstable here.

His expected wOBA is .327, twelve points above the league average of .315, and 702 plate appearances is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. The actual wOBA sits at .357, but that gap runs through a contact profile that doesn't scream for more: 88.2 mph average exit velocity, a 37.7% hard-hit rate, and 6.4% barrels, all a touch under league. What keeps him steady is the approach — a 14.5% strikeout rate against a 22% league mark, a 10.8% walk rate, and a 6.5% swinging-strike rate that's nearly half the league average. That discipline is why the expected wOBA has been stepping up across the sample instead of wobbling. Nothing here is being propped up by luck, and nothing is dragging the line down either. The profile is what it is: a good hitter who isn't quite hitting the ball hard enough to break out and isn't striking out enough to fall apart. Hold. A 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / .000 AVG line makes him a drop; add nothing here, just cut the dead weight.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %6.4%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~6.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.327)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.2 mph
88.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.8 mphvs his norm —
512 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %37.7%
37.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
512 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.4%
norm6.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
512 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.327
.327*
lg avg .315 ▲+.012vs his norm —
702 / 160 PA
wOBA.357
.357*
lg avg .315 ▲+.042vs his norm —
702 / 200 PA
Strikeout %14.5%
14.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.5%vs his norm —
702 / 60 PA
Walk %10.8%
10.8%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
702 / 120 PA
BABIP.275
norm.275*
lg avg .295 ▼−.020vs his norm +.003 ▲BABIP is above his ~.273 norm — expect it to fall.
512 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.5%
6.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
702 / 50 PA
Chase %23.3%
23.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.2%vs his norm —
702 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.4%→6.3%signal0 HR — Barrel% 6.4% (signal) tempered to career ~6.1% → projected 6.3%.
BABIP 0.275→0.279 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.275 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.286 (xBA 0.252) → 0.279.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (2 in 59 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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