week 25
this weekHOLD
last week—
Chris Murphy
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.60); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 3ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–1SV 0–1
Murphy is a hold — near league average, nothing unstable either way.
ROS projects K 6 YTD → 3 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.0%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~21.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.60)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.5%vs his norm —
84 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
84 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.294
lg avg .315 ▼−.021vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
132 / 200 TBF
xERA3.60
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.50vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
132 / 200 TBF
ERA4.20
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.10vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
30 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.0%
lg avg 22.0% 0.0%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
132 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm +0.3% ▲Walk % is above his ~11.1% norm — expect it to fall.
132 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.293
lg avg .295 ▼−.002vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
84 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.7%vs his norm —
132 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
132 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.3 mphvs his norm —
527 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.0%→21.8%signal3 K — K% 22.0% (signal) tempered to career ~21.7% → projected 21.8% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 3.60noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.60 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 7 IP.
BB% 11.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.49 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-1 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.