week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Chris Murphy
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.82); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 15ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–4SV 1–4
Murphy is a hold — league average, nothing to buy or sell.
ROS projects K 6 YTD → 15 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %21.4%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~21.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.82)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.1%vs his norm —
63 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
63 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.304
lg avg .315 ▼−.011vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
98 / 200 TBF
xERA3.82
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.28vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
98 / 200 TBF
ERA4.57
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.47vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
21.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
98 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm +1.1% ▲Walk % is above his ~11.1% norm — expect it to fall.
98 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.311
lg avg .295 ▲+.016vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
63 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
98 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
98 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.3 mphvs his norm —
385 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.4%→21.6%signal15 K — K% 21.4% (signal) held to career ~21.7% → projected 21.6% over ~18 remaining IP.
xERA 3.82noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.82 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 7 IP.
BB% 12.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.54 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role1-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)1-4 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.