MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Dansby Swanson
458 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Dansby Swanson

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (0.306); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSHR 1AVG .197R 6RBI 5SB 1

Swanson is a hold — league average, nothing moving the line.

His expected wOBA is .306 with 458 plate appearances behind it, so the number is reliable — and it sits nine points below league average, not far enough in either direction to call. His actual wOBA is .309, almost identical, so no luck stat is inflating or suppressing the line. The contact numbers back up the same read: 89.5 mph average exit velocity, a 41.1% hard-hit rate, and a 7.6% barrel rate, each within a rounding error of league average. The one thing worth watching is the trajectory — his expected wOBA has been stepping down across the sample rather than holding flat. His walk rate of 10.5% is a touch above league and his strikeout rate of 23.1% is a touch above it too, so the shape of the production is stable. There is no edge to press here. Hold. 1 HR / 6 R / 5 RBI / 1 SB / .197 AVG is streaming-only filler, so drop-tier managers can hold without pressing.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %7.6%−3.0%vs his ~10.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.306)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.5 mph
89.5 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph +0.5 mphvs his norm —
302 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %41.1%
41.1%*
lg avg 40.0% +1.1%vs his norm —
302 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.6%
norm7.6%*
lg avg 8.0% −0.4%vs his norm −3.0%
302 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.306
.306*
lg avg .315 −.009vs his norm —
458 / 160 PA
wOBA.309
.309*
lg avg .315 −.006vs his norm —
458 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.1%
23.1%*
lg avg 22.0% +1.1%vs his norm —
458 / 60 PA
Walk %10.5%
10.5%*
lg avg 8.5% +2.0%vs his norm —
458 / 120 PA
BABIP.244
norm.244*
lg avg .295 −.051vs his norm −.054 BABIP is below his ~.298 normexpect it to rise.
302 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.4%
14.4%*
lg avg 11.0% +3.4%vs his norm —
458 / 50 PA
Chase %26.3%
26.3%*
lg avg 28.5% −2.2%vs his norm —
458 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.6%→8.8%signal1 HR — Barrel% 7.6% (signal) lifted to career ~10.6% → projected 8.8%.
BABIP 0.244→0.250 regressednoise.197 AVG — BABIP 0.244 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.254 (xBA 0.223) → 0.250.
on-base + lineup6 R — his run rate over ~42 projected PA.
slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~42 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (5 in 57 G) over ~42 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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