MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Dansby Swanson
356 PA · week 17
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Dansby Swanson

CHC·SS
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.299 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.58
ROSHR 5AVG .194R 28RBI 23SB 4

Swanson is a sell — the bat is below league with no luck to blame.

His expected wOBA is .299, .016 below the league average of .315, and he has enough plate appearances for that to be reliable — his xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample. His actual wOBA is .308, within 9 points, so there is no bad-luck story propping up the line. His contact quality is near league average: 89.9 mph exit velocity and a 42.7% hard-hit rate are slightly above league, but a 7.7% barrel rate is essentially average. His strikeout rate is elevated at 23.6%, and his swinging-strike rate is 14.2% — both above league — which suppresses his upside further. He walks at a strong 10.4% clip, but that alone cannot rescue the profile. There is no unstable stat to wait for a turn. The bat is what the numbers say. Sell. A .194 AVG with 5 HR and 4 SB in the projected line makes him a drop even in deep leagues.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %7.7%—−2.9% ▼vs his ~10.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.299 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.9 mph
89.9 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.9 mphvs his norm —
234 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.7%
42.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
234 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.7%
norm7.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm −2.9% ▼
234 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.299
.299*
lg avg .315 ▼−.016vs his norm —
356 / 160 PA
wOBA.308
believable since May 25.308*
lg avg .315 ▼−.007vs his norm —
356 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.6%
23.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
356 / 60 PA
Walk %10.4%
10.4%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
356 / 120 PA
BABIP.230
norm.230*
lg avg .295 ▼−.065vs his norm −.068 ▼BABIP is below his ~.298 norm — expect it to rise.
234 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.2%
14.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
356 / 50 PA
Chase %26.3%
26.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
356 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.7%→9.1%signal5 HR — Barrel% 7.7% (signal) lifted to career ~10.6% → projected 9.1%.
BABIP 0.230→0.236 regressednoise.194 AVG — BABIP 0.230 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.239 (xBA 0.212) → 0.236.
on-base + lineup28 R — his run rate over ~189 projected PA.
slugging + lineup23 RBI — his RBI rate over ~189 projected PA.
run rate / role4 SB — his steal rate (5 in 57 G) over ~189 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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