week 12
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Eli Morgan
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
new call as of June 13, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (7.11); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 37ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 1–4
Morgan is a hold — limited data, near league average.
ROS projects K 15 YTD → 37 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %18.5%—−4.6% ▼vs his ~23.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (7.11)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
56 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
56 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.402
lg avg .315 ▲+.087vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
81 / 200 TBF
xERA7.11
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.01vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
81 / 200 TBF
ERA5.51
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.41vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
16.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm −4.6% ▼
81 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm +3.2% ▲Walk % is above his ~6.7% norm — expect it to fall.
81 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.365
lg avg .295 ▲+.070vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
56 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.5%→21.8%signal37 K — K% 18.5% (signal) lifted to career ~23.1% → projected 21.8% over ~34 remaining IP.
xERA 7.11noise3.70 ERA — xERA 7.11 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 16 IP.
BB% 9.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.51 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)1-4 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.