week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Joe Mantiply
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.67); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 15ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–1SV 0
Mantiply is a hold — league average, no edge either way.
ROS projects K 16 YTD → 15 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.5%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~21.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.67)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
50 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
50 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.332
lg avg .315 ▲+.017vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
71 / 200 TBF
xERA4.67
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.57vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
71 / 200 TBF
ERA2.04
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.06vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
17.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
71 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm −0.9% ▼Walk % is below his ~6.5% norm — expect it to rise.
71 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.319
lg avg .295 ▲+.024vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
50 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
71 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.4%vs his norm —
71 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo88.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−5.2 mphvs his norm —
264 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.5%→21.5%signal15 K — K% 22.5% (signal) tempered to career ~21.1% → projected 21.5% over ~17 remaining…
xERA 4.67noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.67 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 18 IP.
BB% 5.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.24 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.