MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of John King
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

John King

MIA·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell High BABIP-against 0.158 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.28 is 0.80 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.87
ROSK 15ERA 3.68WHIP 1.24W 0–1SV 0–2

King is a sell-high — his BABIP-against is cratering.

His ERA of 2.48 looks tidy, but the number keeping it that way is his BABIP-against of .158 — 137 points below the league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 105. That gap is luck, not skill. His luck-free xERA is 3.28, nearly 0.80 higher, pointing straight at regression. His strikeout rate is slightly below league, and his hard-hit allowed (36.2%) is decent but not elite. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season, and the surface is clearly flattered by an unsustainable BABIP. Sell high. 15 K with a 3.68 ERA and 1.24 WHIP is a deep-league sell-high window before that BABIP regression hits.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %20.1%—+4.5% ▲vs his ~15.6% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.158 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.28 is 0.80 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.2%
36.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
105 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.6%
8.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
105 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.283
.283*
lg avg .315 ▼−.032vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
149 / 200 TBF
xERA3.28
3.28*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.82vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
149 / 200 TBF
ERA2.48
2.48*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.62vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
40 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.1%
norm20.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm +4.5% ▲
149 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.7%
norm6.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm +0.3% ▲Walk % is above his ~6.4% norm — expect it to fall.
149 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.158
.158*
lg avg .295 ▼−.137vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
105 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.3%
11.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
149 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.4%
34.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.9%vs his norm —
149 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.5 mph
90.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.5 mphvs his norm —
530 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.1%→17.5%signal15 K — K% 20.1% (signal) tempered to career ~15.6% → projected 17.5% over ~21 remaining…
xERA 3.28noise3.68 ERA — xERA 3.28 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 6.7% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.277 gives a 1.24 skill WHIP, blended 5%…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-2 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.68 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups