week 19
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Jonathan Hernández
data as of August 5, 2026·week 19
new call as of August 5, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.42); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 14ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Hernández is a hold — league-average skills, nothing driving either way.
ROS projects K 5 YTD → 14 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %18.9%—−3.6% ▼vs his ~22.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.42)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
61 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
61 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.354
lg avg .315 ▲+.039vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
90 / 200 TBF
xERA5.42
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.32vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
90 / 200 TBF
ERA7.32
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.22vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
19.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm −3.6% ▼
90 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm +1.5% ▲Walk % is above his ~11.8% norm — expect it to fall.
90 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.281
lg avg .295 ▼−.014vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
61 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
90 / 60 TBF
Chase %23.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
90 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.2 mphvs his norm —
349 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.9%→21.4%signal14 K — K% 18.9% (signal) lifted to career ~22.5% → projected 21.4% over ~15 remaining IP.
xERA 5.42noise3.70 ERA — xERA 5.42 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 6 IP.
BB% 13.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.64 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.