week 27
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
José Urquidy
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.39 sits 0.71 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.345 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0–0
Urquidy is a buy-low — the ERA is BABIP noise, not his arm.
ERA ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %18.0%—−1.6% ▼vs his ~19.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.39 sits 0.71 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.345 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —
114 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
114 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.285
lg avg .315 ▼−.030vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
150 / 200 TBF
xERA3.39
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.71vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
150 / 200 TBF
ERA4.54
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.44vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
33.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm −1.6% ▼
150 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.3%vs his norm −1.3% ▼Walk % is below his ~6.0% norm — expect it to rise.
150 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.345
lg avg .295 ▲+.050vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
114 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
150 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.7%vs his norm —
150 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —
557 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.0%→18.9%signal0 K — K% 18.0% (signal) lifted to career ~19.6% → projected 18.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.39noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.39 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 6 IP.
BB% 4.7% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.30 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-0 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.