250 PA · week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
Marcell Ozuna
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine; strikeout rate 31% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.273 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.67 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 6AVG .218R 13RBI 20SB 0
Ozuna is a buy-low — BABIP slump masks solid contact.
Cold results, but stable contact quality and a depressed BABIP say the slump is noise. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %8.8%—−5.9% ▼vs his ~14.7% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.273 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.7 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —
147 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %38.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
147 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm −5.9% ▼
147 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.313
lg avg .315 ▼−.002vs his norm —
250 / 160 PA
wOBA.279
lg avg .315 ▼−.036vs his norm —
250 / 200 PA
Strikeout %30.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.8%vs his norm —
250 / 60 PA
Walk %9.6%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
250 / 120 PA
BABIP.273
lg avg .295 ▼−.022vs his norm −.040 ▼BABIP is below his ~.313 norm — expect it to rise.
147 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
250 / 50 PA
Chase %26.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
250 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.8%→12.2%signal6 HR — Barrel% 8.8% (signal) lifted to career ~14.7% → projected 12.2%.
BABIP 0.273→0.287 regressednoise.218 AVG — BABIP 0.273 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.290 (xBA 0.226) → 0.287.
on-base + lineup13 R — his run rate over ~184 projected PA.
slugging + lineup20 RBI — his RBI rate over ~184 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 46 G) over ~184 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.