192 PA · week 10
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
————————
Marcell Ozuna
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Ozuna is a buy-low — suppressed BABIP hides stable contact.
His BABIP sits at .243 against a league-average .295, and with only 116 balls in play — far short of the 800 needed — that gap is luck, not skill. His contact quality tells a different story: average exit velo (89.8 mph) and barrel rate (8.6%) are both slightly above league, and his hard-hit rate has been stepping up across the sample, now at 40.5%. His xwOBA is .308, suggesting his actual .261 wOBA has room to recover. The strikeout rate is 29.2% — high and stable — which caps his batting average, but the underlying bat is intact. The slump is BABIP noise, not a broken swing. Buy low.
Buy Low
med0.69
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.243 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.8 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL116 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL116 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL116 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.308
lg avg .315 ▼−.007trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL192 / 160 PA
wOBA.261
lg avg .315 ▼−.054too early to trust
NOISE192 / 200 PA
Strikeout %29.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL192 / 60 PA
Walk %9.4%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL192 / 120 PA
BABIP.243
lg avg .295 ▼−.052too early to trust
NOISE116 / 800 BIP