698 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
Matt Olson
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Buy stable xwOBA 0.351, +0.036 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.67 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Olson is a buy — the contact is elite and getting better.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %14.1%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~14.4% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.351, +0.036 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo92.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+3.5 mphvs his norm —
460 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %52.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+12.0%vs his norm —
460 / 50 BBE
Barrel %14.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.1%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
460 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.351
lg avg .315 ▲+.036vs his norm —
698 / 160 PA
wOBA.351
lg avg .315 ▲+.036vs his norm —
698 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
698 / 60 PA
Walk %9.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
698 / 120 PA
BABIP.277
lg avg .295 ▼−.018vs his norm −.033 ▼BABIP is below his ~.310 norm — expect it to rise.
460 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
698 / 50 PA
Chase %27.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
698 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 14.1%→14.2%signal0 HR — Barrel% 14.1% (signal) held to career ~14.4% → projected 14.2%.
BABIP 0.277→0.268 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.277 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.255 (xBA 0.247) → 0.268.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 60 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.