Rest of Season Projection
AndrewCategoryMatt
9HR →20
36R →62
36RBI →68
0SB →2
.314AVG ←.249
Current Season
AndrewCategoryMatt
1HR →16
10R →41
10RBI →45
0SB →1
.354AVG ←.261
What Each Player's System Trusts
Andrew Vaughn
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.393 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.347 is 0.066 below the surface — regression coming
Matt Olson
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.379, +0.064 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Andrew Vaughn: 9 HR / 36 R. Matt Olson: 20 HR / 62 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).