135 PA · week 27
this weekHOLD
last week—
Matt Wallner
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 39% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.281); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Wallner is a hold — the bat is average, the strikeouts are not.
ROS projects HR 4 YTD → 0 ROS, AVG .167 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %10.4%—−5.7% ▼vs his ~16.1% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.281)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 39% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.6 mphvs his norm —
67 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
67 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm −5.7% ▼
67 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.281
lg avg .315 ▼−.034vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
135 / 160 PA
wOBA.253
lg avg .315 ▼−.062vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
135 / 200 PA
Strikeout %39.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+17.3%vs his norm —
135 / 60 PA
Walk %7.4%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
135 / 120 PA
BABIP.254
lg avg .295 ▼−.041vs his norm −.043 ▼BABIP is below his ~.297 norm — expect it to rise.
67 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %22.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+11.9%vs his norm —
135 / 50 PA
Chase %31.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
135 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.4%→14.7%signal0 HR — Barrel% 10.4% (signal) lifted to career ~16.1% → projected 14.7%.
BABIP 0.254→0.287 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.254 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.290 (xBA 0.200) → 0.287.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 34 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.