299 PA · week 18
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
Munetaka Murakami
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Buy stable xwOBA 0.376, +0.061 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor; add now.med 0.72 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 5AVG .175R 29RBI 27SB 1
Murakami is a buy — elite contact, no luck propping the line.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.376, +0.061 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo94.1 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+5.1 mphvs his norm —
147 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %59.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+19.2%vs his norm —
147 / 50 BBE
Barrel %20.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+12.4%vs his norm —
147 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.376
lg avg .315 ▲+.061vs his norm —
299 / 160 PA
wOBA.391
lg avg .315 ▲+.076vs his norm —
299 / 200 PA
Strikeout %32.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.4%vs his norm —
299 / 60 PA
Walk %18.1%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+9.6%vs his norm —
299 / 120 PA
BABIP.288
lg avg .295 ▼−.007vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
147 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.7%vs his norm —
299 / 50 PA
Chase %22.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−6.5%vs his norm —
299 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 20.4%→17.9%signal5 HR — Barrel% 20.4% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 17.9%.
BABIP 0.288→0.241 regressednoise.175 AVG — BABIP 0.288 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.222) → 0.241.
on-base + lineup29 R — his run rate over ~165 projected PA.
slugging + lineup27 RBI — his RBI rate over ~165 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 57 G) over ~165 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.