358 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
Spencer Steer
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy stable xwOBA 0.346, +0.031 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.66 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .238HR 5R 28RBI 18SB 3
Steer is a buy — his xwOBA is trending up and earned.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %11.8%—+4.9% ▲vs his ~6.9% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.346, +0.031 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.7 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —
238 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %39.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
238 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm +4.9% ▲
238 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.346
lg avg .315 ▲+.031vs his norm —
358 / 160 PA
wOBA.330
lg avg .315 ▲+.015vs his norm —
358 / 200 PA
Strikeout %22.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
358 / 60 PA
Walk %9.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
358 / 120 PA
BABIP.286
lg avg .295 ▼−.009vs his norm +.000 ▲BABIP is above his ~.286 norm — expect it to fall.
238 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
358 / 50 PA
Chase %26.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
358 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.8%→9.5%signal5 HR — Barrel% 11.8% (signal) tempered to career ~6.9% → projected 9.5%.
BABIP 0.286→0.284 regressednoise.238 AVG — BABIP 0.286 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.283 (xBA 0.249) → 0.284.
on-base + lineup28 R — his run rate over ~189 projected PA.
slugging + lineup18 RBI — his RBI rate over ~189 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (3 in 57 G) over ~189 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.