MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Spencer Steer
384 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Spencer Steer

CIN·1B
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Buy stable xwOBA 0.342, +0.027 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.65
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Steer is a buy — earned contact, no luck in the line.

His expected wOBA is .342, 27 points above the league average of .315, and he has 384 plate appearances — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .325, slightly below the expected figure, so his line is not being inflated by batted-ball luck; the production is earned and there is a little room left on the surface. The power is real too: an 11.7% barrel rate against a league average of 8.0%, with 256 batted balls, comfortably past the threshold. The one wrinkle is a hard-hit rate that has stepped down across the sample, which is why the expected wOBA climbing rather than his actual line is the number to watch. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %11.7%—+4.8% ▲vs his ~6.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.342, +0.027 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.7 mph
89.7 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —
256 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %39.1%
39.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
256 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.7%
norm11.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm +4.8% ▲
256 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.342
.342*
lg avg .315 ▲+.027vs his norm —
384 / 160 PA
wOBA.325
.325*
lg avg .315 ▲+.010vs his norm —
384 / 200 PA
Strikeout %22.4%
22.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
384 / 60 PA
Walk %9.1%
9.1%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
384 / 120 PA
BABIP.271
norm.271*
lg avg .295 ▼−.024vs his norm −.015 ▼BABIP is below his ~.286 norm — expect it to rise.
256 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.5%
11.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
384 / 50 PA
Chase %26.2%
26.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
384 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.7%→9.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 11.7% (signal) tempered to career ~6.9% → projected 9.6%.
BABIP 0.271→0.276 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.271 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.279 (xBA 0.246) → 0.276.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (3 in 57 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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