MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Spencer Steer
384 PA · week 25
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Spencer Steer

CIN·1B
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Buy stable xwOBA 0.342, +0.027 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.65
ROSAVG .227HR 1R 6RBI 4SB 1

Steer is a buy — earned production and a rising expected line

His expected wOBA is .342, .027 above the league average of .315, and he has enough plate appearances for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA is .326, so the line is not being propped up by balls falling in — the skill is outpacing the surface, not the other way around. The barrel rate separates him: 11.7% against a league average of 8.0%, on a sample well past the point where contact quality becomes trustworthy, and his expected line has been stepping up across the season. He strikes out 22.4% of the time and walks 9.1%, near league on both, so there is no discipline drag to weigh against the bat. This is real skill the results have not fully caught up to. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %11.7%—+4.8% ▲vs his ~6.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.342, +0.027 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.7 mph
89.7 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —
256 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %39.1%
39.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
256 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.7%
norm11.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm +4.8% ▲
256 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.342
.342*
lg avg .315 ▲+.027vs his norm —
384 / 160 PA
wOBA.326
.326*
lg avg .315 ▲+.011vs his norm —
384 / 200 PA
Strikeout %22.4%
22.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
384 / 60 PA
Walk %9.1%
9.1%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
384 / 120 PA
BABIP.271
norm.271*
lg avg .295 ▼−.024vs his norm −.015 ▼BABIP is below his ~.286 norm — expect it to rise.
256 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.5%
11.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
384 / 50 PA
Chase %26.2%
26.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
384 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.7%→9.6%signal1 HR — Barrel% 11.7% (signal) tempered to career ~6.9% → projected 9.6%.
BABIP 0.271→0.276 regressednoise.227 AVG — BABIP 0.271 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.279 (xBA 0.246) → 0.276.
on-base + lineup6 R — his run rate over ~42 projected PA.
slugging + lineup4 RBI — his RBI rate over ~42 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (3 in 57 G) over ~42 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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