MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
Engraved portrait of Teoscar Hernández
204 PA · week 12
this weekBUY
last week—

Teoscar Hernández

LAD·LF
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Buy stable xwOBA 0.339, +0.024 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality — BABIP 0.355 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.65
ROSHR 11AVG .253R 45RBI 46SB 3

Hernández is a buy — elite contact, production earned.

His hard-hit rate has stepped up across the sample to 45.3% — well above the league average of 40.0% and past the point where the number becomes reliable. His barrel rate is similarly elevated. The improved contact quality is driving a stable expected wOBA of .339, which is .024 above league and supported by 204 plate appearances. His actual wOBA of .345 tracks close, so the surface isn't lying — but his BABIP of .355 sits above league and is still noise at 128 balls in play. Expect some of that average to regress as the BABIP normalizes. The skill, though, is real and the trajectory is up. Buy. 11 HR / 45 R / 46 RBI / 3 SB / .253 AVG: a deep-league asset whose contact skill is trending up — buy now.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %10.9%—−2.5% ▼vs his ~13.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.339, +0.024 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.355 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.8 mph
89.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphvs his norm —
128 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %45.3%
45.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
128 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.9%
norm10.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm −2.5% ▼
128 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.339
.339*
lg avg .315 ▲+.024vs his norm —
204 / 160 PA
wOBA.345
.345*
lg avg .315 ▲+.030vs his norm —
204 / 200 PA
Strikeout %27.0%
27.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
204 / 60 PA
Walk %9.3%
9.3%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
204 / 120 PA
BABIP.355
norm.355*
lg avg .295 ▲+.060vs his norm +.031 ▲BABIP is above his ~.324 norm — expect it to fall.
128 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.9%→12.4%signal11 HR — Barrel% 10.9% (signal) lifted to career ~13.4% → projected 12.4%.
BABIP 0.355→0.324 regressednoise.253 AVG — BABIP 0.355 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.319 (xBA 0.259) → 0.324.
on-base + lineup45 R — his run rate over ~306 projected PA.
slugging + lineup46 RBI — his RBI rate over ~306 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (2 in 51 G) over ~306 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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