MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tyler Soderstrom
347 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Tyler Soderstrom

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.343, +0.028 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.66
ROSHR 6AVG .242R 21RBI 21SB 1

Soderstrom is a buy — contact quality and discipline are real.

His expected wOBA is .343 — .028 above league average — and he has 347 plate appearances, well past the threshold for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA tracks right with it at .348, so there is no luck inflating the line. The contact quality is elite and stable: a 44.8% hard-hit rate on 239 batted balls, well above the 40% league average, and his hard-hit rate has been stepping up across the sample. He walks 13% of the time against an 8.5% league rate and strikes out just 17.6%, which is well below the 22% league average. The discipline is genuine. The bat is real and the platform is there to sustain it. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %10.0%−1.4%vs his ~11.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.343, +0.028 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.1 mph
90.1 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph +1.1 mphvs his norm —
239 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.8%
44.8%*
lg avg 40.0% +4.8%vs his norm —
239 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.0%
norm10.0%*
lg avg 8.0% +2.0%vs his norm −1.4%
239 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.343
.343*
lg avg .315 +.028vs his norm —
347 / 160 PA
wOBA.348
.348*
lg avg .315 +.033vs his norm —
347 / 200 PA
Strikeout %17.6%
17.6%*
lg avg 22.0% −4.4%vs his norm —
347 / 60 PA
Walk %13.0%
13.0%*
lg avg 8.5% +4.5%vs his norm —
347 / 120 PA
BABIP.258
norm.258*
lg avg .295 −.037vs his norm −.043 BABIP is below his ~.301 normexpect it to rise.
239 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.7%
9.7%*
lg avg 11.0% −1.3%vs his norm —
347 / 50 PA
Chase %25.6%
25.6%*
lg avg 28.5% −2.9%vs his norm —
347 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.0%→10.6%signal6 HR — Barrel% 10.0% (signal) lifted to career ~11.4% → projected 10.6%.
BABIP 0.258→0.278 regressednoise.242 AVG — BABIP 0.258 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.286 (xBA 0.257) → 0.278.
on-base + lineup21 R — his run rate over ~194 projected PA.
slugging + lineup21 RBI — his RBI rate over ~194 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 56 G) over ~194 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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