MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 24, 2026
Aaron Civale
CHC · P
Change to
Hunter Dobbins
STL · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 22. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Aaron Civale wins 2 (K, W); Hunter Dobbins wins 2 (ERA, WHIP); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Aaron Civale
91.4
Hunter Dobbins
95.3
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
9.1%
Hunter Dobbins
11.3%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
16.9%
Hunter Dobbins
23.5%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
30.2%
Hunter Dobbins
28.3%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Aaron Civale
46.2%
Hunter Dobbins
47.5%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Aaron Civale
10.2%
Hunter Dobbins
8.8%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Aaron Civale
.350
Hunter Dobbins
.318
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Aaron Civale
3.795.18
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.20
4.87
Hunter Dobbins
3.795.18
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.50
4.10
WHIPlower is better
Aaron Civale
1.231.54
now 1.47
1.41
Hunter Dobbins
1.231.54
now 1.38
1.30

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Aaron Civale
4051.40
now 39
38
Hunter Dobbins
4051.40
now 8
33
Winshigher is better
Aaron Civale
.0008.40
now 5
36
Hunter Dobbins
.0008.40
now 0
00

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
SellAaron Civale — sell.conf 0.90
Hold · wait & seeHunter Dobbins — hold.conf 0.50
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