MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
Aaron Civale
CHC · P
Change to
Portrait of Jacob Lopez
Jacob Lopez
ATH · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 1–1, 2 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
▶
◀
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Aaron Civale wins 1 (WHIP); Jacob Lopez wins 1 (ERA); 2 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Aaron Civale
91.5
Jacob Lopez
90.3
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
9.6%
Jacob Lopez
11.1%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
18.5%
Jacob Lopez
20.3%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
31.1%
Jacob Lopez
27.3%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Aaron Civale
40.2%
Jacob Lopez
31.5%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Aaron Civale
8.0%
Jacob Lopez
6.9%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Aaron Civale
.320
Jacob Lopez
.295
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Aaron Civale
2.417.99
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.20
4.26
Jacob Lopez
2.417.99
lg xERA 4.10
now 6.75
3.65
WHIPlower is better
Aaron Civale
1.182.03
now 1.47
1.37
Jacob Lopez
1.182.03
now 1.84
1.42

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Aaron Civale
4054.60
now 39
0
Jacob Lopez
4054.60
now 38
0
Winshigher is better
Aaron Civale
.0007
now 5
0–0
Jacob Lopez
.0007
now 4
0–0

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · leans sellAaron Civale — hold.conf 0.60
BuyJacob Lopez — buy.conf 0.73
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