Rest of Season Projection
AdamCategoryJosh
2HR →4
39R ←14
16RBI ←14
0SB →5
.164AVG →.230
Current Season
AdamCategoryJosh
1HR ←0
15R ←6
6RBI6
0SB →2
.227AVG ←.217
What Each Player's System Trusts
Adam Frazier
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.308 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.237 is 0.049 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Josh Smith
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.300)
Adam Frazier: 2 HR / 39 R. Josh Smith: 4 HR / 14 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).