Rest of Season Projection
AdrianCategoryMatt
60K →67
4.95ERA →4.09
1.42WHIP →1.30
2–5W2–4
0SV0
Current Season
AdrianCategoryMatt
35K ←22
5.59ERA ←8.49
1.56WHIP ←1.71
2W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Adrian Houser
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.41 +1.31 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Matt Waldron
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.78 sits 0.32 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.384 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Adrian Houser: 61 K / 4.95 ERA. Matt Waldron: 68 K / 4.09 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).