Rest of Season Projection
AlexCategoryRyan
9HR →11
41R ←31
27RBI →36
3SB →6
.256AVG ←.207
Current Season
AlexCategoryRyan
5HR →6
28R ←16
18RBI →19
2SB →3
.259AVG ←.207
What Each Player's System Trusts
Alex Bregman
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.322)
Ryan McMahon
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.285 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
McMahon projects for 11 HR / 6 SB vs Bregman's 9 HR / 3 SB, but McMahon's .207 AVG trails Bregman's .256 by 49 points. The hold vs sell spread reflects the unsustainable batting average gap.