Rest of Season Projection
AustinCategoryZack
15HR ←10
47R ←43
50RBI ←39
5SB →12
.210AVG →.228
Current Season
AustinCategoryZack
8HR ←6
30R ←21
32RBI ←19
3SB →6
.209AVG →.259
What Each Player's System Trusts
Austin Riley
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.301)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Zack Gelof
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.320 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.294 is 0.030 below the surface — regression coming
Austin Riley's 15 HR outpaces Zack Gelof's 10 HR, but Gelof leads 12 SB to 5 SB. Riley holds; Gelof is a sell-high call.