247 PA · week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Zack Gelof
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 10-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Sell High luck-free skill 0.289 is 0.059 below the surface, regression coming — BABIP 0.331 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.80 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 4AVG .217R 23RBI 21SB 7
Gelof is a sell-high — his BABIP is inflating the line.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %6.6%—−3.3% ▼vs his ~9.9% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.331 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.289 is 0.059 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.8 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.2 mphvs his norm —
167 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %41.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
167 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm −3.3% ▼
167 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.289
lg avg .315 ▼−.026vs his norm —
247 / 160 PA
wOBA.348
lg avg .315 ▲+.033vs his norm —
247 / 200 PA
Strikeout %25.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
247 / 60 PA
Walk %5.7%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
247 / 120 PA
BABIP.331
lg avg .295 ▲+.036vs his norm +.021 ▲BABIP is above his ~.309 norm — expect it to fall.
167 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
247 / 50 PA
Chase %23.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —
247 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.6%→8.4%signal4 HR — Barrel% 6.6% (signal) lifted to career ~9.9% → projected 8.4%.
BABIP 0.331→0.272 regressednoise.217 AVG — BABIP 0.331 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.256 (xBA 0.225) → 0.272.
on-base + lineup23 R — his run rate over ~167 projected PA.
slugging + lineup21 RBI — his RBI rate over ~167 projected PA.
run rate / role7 SB — his steal rate (6 in 43 G) over ~167 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.