Rest of Season Projection
AustinCategoryMatt
37K →39
3.70ERA3.69
1.24WHIP1.24
1–3W ←1–2
0SV →1–3
Current Season
AustinCategoryMatt
22K →27
1.33ERA ←4.68
1.13WHIP ←1.24
1W1
0SV →1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Austin Warren
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.250 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.00 is 1.98 above the ERA — regression coming
Matt Festa
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.37)
Austin Warren: 37 K / 3.70 ERA. Matt Festa: 39 K / 3.69 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).