Rest of Season Projection
AustinCategoryTyler
37K ←26
3.70ERA →3.61
1.24WHIP ←1.25
1–3W ←1–2
0SV →2–4
Current Season
AustinCategoryTyler
22K ←16
1.33ERA ←2.36
1.13WHIP1.13
1W1
0SV →2
What Each Player's System Trusts
Austin Warren
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.250 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.00 is 1.98 above the ERA — regression coming
Tyler Rogers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.28)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Austin Warren: 37 K / 3.70 ERA. Tyler Rogers: 26 K / 3.61 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).