Rest of Season Projection
BenCategoryJose
20HR ←5
70R ←43
70RBI ←28
3SB →11
.270AVG ←.236
Current Season
BenCategoryJose
17HR ←3
44R ←23
44RBI ←15
2SB →6
.306AVG ←.256
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.408 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Jose Fernandez
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.271 below league with no luck excuse
Ben Rice: 20 HR / 70 R. Jose Fernandez: 5 HR / 43 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).