Rest of Season Projection
BenCategoryJuan
20HR →22
71R ←50
71RBI ←54
3SB →9
.269AVG →.280
Current Season
BenCategoryJuan
17HR ←13
44R ←27
44RBI ←29
2SB →5
.306AVG ←.297
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.409 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Juan Soto
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.418, +0.103 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Ben Rice: 20 HR / 71 R. Juan Soto: 22 HR / 50 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).