Rest of Season Projection
BenCategoryJames
20HR →22
71R →78
71RBI ←58
3SB →15
.269AVG ←.259
Current Season
BenCategoryJames
17HR ←16
44R →53
44RBI ←39
2SB →10
.306AVG ←.272
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.409 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
James Wood
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.438, +0.123 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Ben Rice: 20 HR / 71 R. James Wood: 22 HR / 78 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).