Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryBen
28HR ←20
67R →71
59RBI →71
8SB ←3
.255AVG →.269
Current Season
AaronCategoryBen
17HR17
43R →44
38RBI →44
5SB ←2
.248AVG →.306
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Judge
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.415, +0.100 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.409 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Judge projects for 28 HR vs Rice's 20 HR, but trails in AVG (.255 vs .269). The power gap is decisive for a buy; Rice's sell-high verdict reflects forthcoming regression.