Rest of Season Projection
BenCategoryMJ
20HR ←7
70R ←25
70RBI ←25
3SB ←0
.270AVG ←.160
Current Season
BenCategoryMJ
17HR ←3
44R ←9
44RBI ←9
2SB ←0
.306AVG ←.205
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.408 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
MJ Melendez
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.272)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 35% is stable and high — caps the floor
Ben Rice: 20 HR / 70 R. MJ Melendez: 7 HR / 25 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).