Rest of Season Projection
BlakeCategoryBrice
4HR →7
36R ←28
7RBI →28
7SB ←4
.219AVG ←.186
Current Season
BlakeCategoryBrice
1HR →4
10R →14
2RBI →14
2SB2
.269AVG ←.204
What Each Player's System Trusts
Blake Dunn
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.353 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.263 is 0.053 below the surface — regression coming
Brice Matthews
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.262)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
Dunn leads in SB (7 vs 4) and AVG (.219 vs .186) but trails in HR (4 vs 7). The sell-high verdict for Dunn reflects surface stats; Matthews's hold aligns with deeper counting skills.