Rest of Season Projection
BradCategoryJoel
42K ←21
3.68ERA ←3.72
1.25WHIP →1.24
2–6W ←1–2
0SV →4–8
Current Season
BradCategoryJoel
31K ←13
2.68ERA ←3.04
1.00WHIP ←1.18
3W ←1
0SV →4
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brad Lord
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.236 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.54 is 1.24 above the ERA — regression coming
Joel Kuhnel
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.34)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Lord projects for 42 K to Kuhnel's 21. Their WHIP is nearly identical (1.25 vs 1.24). The sell-high verdict on Lord reflects an unsustainable K rate.