Rest of Season Projection
BrayanCategoryXander
5HR →9
43R ←40
45RBI ←41
15SB ←14
.257AVG ←.240
Current Season
BrayanCategoryXander
4HR →8
26R ←25
27RBI ←26
9SB9
.293AVG ←.243
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brayan Rocchio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.323 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.320 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Xander Bogaerts
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.324)
Bogaerts projects for 9 HR / .240 AVG against Rocchio's 5 HR / .257 AVG. The power edge is clear; the average gap favors Rocchio. Sell Rocchio; hold Bogaerts.