Rest of Season Projection
BrettCategoryNolan
10HR ←7
37R →46
39RBI →46
3SB ←2
.233AVG →.241
Current Season
BrettCategoryNolan
3HR →8
22R →28
23RBI →28
2SB ←1
.233AVG →.270
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brett Baty
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.297 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Nolan Arenado
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.330)
Brett Baty: 10 HR / 37 R. Nolan Arenado: 7 HR / 46 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).