MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Brett Baty
431 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Brett Baty

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.313); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSHR 1AVG .224R 4RBI 5SB 0

Baty is a hold — average skill, nothing unstable either way.

His expected wOBA is .313, within a hair of the league average of .315, and he has 431 plate appearances, past the point where that number becomes reliable. Contact quality is slightly above league: 90.3 mph average exit velocity, a 42.3% hard-hit rate, 10.3% barrels, all on 272 batted balls. There is nothing unstable underneath the line. His walk rate sits at 8.8%, essentially league average. The one thing pulling the other way is the swing-and-miss: a 27.1% strikeout rate and a 14.4% swinging-strike rate, both above league, and the expected wOBA has been stepping down across the sample. That is pressure on the average, not a luck story. This is a league-average bat with a strikeout problem, not a buy and not a sell. Hold. 1 HR / 4 R / 5 RBI and a .224 AVG the rest of the way makes him waiver fringe, a deep-league hold at best.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %10.3%+0.7%vs his ~9.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.313)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.3 mph
90.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph +1.3 mphvs his norm —
272 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.3%
42.3%*
lg avg 40.0% +2.3%vs his norm —
272 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.3%
norm10.3%*
lg avg 8.0% +2.3%vs his norm +0.7%
272 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.313
.313*
lg avg .315 −.002vs his norm —
431 / 160 PA
wOBA.293
believable since Jun 4.293*
lg avg .315 −.022vs his norm —
431 / 200 PA
Strikeout %27.1%
27.1%*
lg avg 22.0% +5.1%vs his norm —
431 / 60 PA
Walk %8.8%
8.8%*
lg avg 8.5% +0.3%vs his norm —
431 / 120 PA
BABIP.294
norm.294*
lg avg .295 −.001vs his norm +.002 BABIP is above his ~.292 normexpect it to fall.
272 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.4%
14.4%*
lg avg 11.0% +3.4%vs his norm —
431 / 50 PA
Chase %29.2%
29.2%*
lg avg 28.5% +0.7%vs his norm —
431 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.3%→10.0%signal1 HR — Barrel% 10.3% (signal) tempered to career ~9.6% → projected 10.0%.
BABIP 0.294→0.307 regressednoise.224 AVG — BABIP 0.294 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.314 (xBA 0.237) → 0.307.
on-base + lineup4 R — his run rate over ~40 projected PA.
slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~40 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (2 in 56 G) over ~40 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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