Rest of Season Projection
BryceCategoryJustin
92K ←79
3.05ERA ←3.84
1.28WHIP1.28
4–9W →8–17
0SV0
Current Season
BryceCategoryJustin
61K ←40
2.50ERA ←2.87
1.08WHIP →1.01
4W →7
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Bryce Elder
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.255 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.05 is 0.42 above the ERA — regression coming
Justin Wrobleski
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.237 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.84 is 0.97 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Bryce Elder: 92 K / 3.05 ERA. Justin Wrobleski: 79 K / 3.84 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).