MLB Daily DeltaWeek 14 · June 28, 2026
Burch Smith
DET · P
Change to
Portrait of Jonathan Hernández
Jonathan Hernández
LAD · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Burch Smith.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts. Jonathan Hernández’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Burch Smith wins 1 categories (K); Jonathan Hernández wins 0 (none); 3 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Burch Smith
93.8
Jonathan Hernández
97.2
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Burch Smith
10.4%
Jonathan Hernández
7.6%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Burch Smith
27.4%
Jonathan Hernández
18.4%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Burch Smith
26.2%
Jonathan Hernández
24.5%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Burch Smith
47.8%
Jonathan Hernández
33.3%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Burch Smith
4.3%
Jonathan Hernández
7.8%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Burch Smith
.287
Jonathan Hernández
.365
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Burch Smith
24.58
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.18
3.70
Jonathan Hernández
24.58
lg xERA 4.10
now 1.50
3.70
WHIPlower is better
Burch Smith
.9001.93
now 1.47
1.24
Jonathan Hernández
.9001.93
now 0.33
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Burch Smith
4037.20
now 20
28
Jonathan Hernández
4037.20
now 5
26
Winshigher is better
Burch Smith
.000.480
now 0
00
Jonathan Hernández
.000.480
now 0
00

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeBurch Smith — hold.conf 0.50
Hold · wait & seeJonathan Hernández — hold.conf 0.50
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