Rest of Season Projection
CarterCategoryJ.T.
8HR →9
38R ←23
43RBI ←19
0SB →2
.182AVG →.256
Current Season
CarterCategoryJ.T.
7HR ←2
23R ←11
26RBI ←9
0SB →1
.223AVG ←.220
What Each Player's System Trusts
Carter Jensen
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.269 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
J.T. Realmuto
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.252 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Carter Jensen: 8 HR / 38 R. J.T. Realmuto: 9 HR / 23 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).