Rest of Season Projection
ChaseCategoryMarcus
4HR →9
48R ←31
24RBI →31
1SB →7
.227AVG →.249
Current Season
ChaseCategoryMarcus
5HR →6
36R ←23
18RBI →23
1SB →5
.269AVG ←.228
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chase Meidroth
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.343 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.291 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Marcus Semien
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.247 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Chase Meidroth: 4 HR / 49 R. Marcus Semien: 9 HR / 32 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).