Rest of Season Projection
ChristianCategoryIldemaro
8HR ←4
52R ←49
45RBI →60
7SB ←2
.212AVG →.273
Current Season
ChristianCategoryIldemaro
4HR →7
21R →30
18RBI →37
3SB ←1
.275AVG →.291
What Each Player's System Trusts
Christian Yelich
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.392 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.289 is 0.065 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Ildemaro Vargas
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.317)
Christian Yelich: 8 HR / 52 R. Ildemaro Vargas: 4 HR / 49 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).