Rest of Season Projection
ChristianCategoryJake
8HR →15
52R ←44
45RBI →57
7SB ←2
.212AVG →.236
Current Season
ChristianCategoryJake
4HR →10
21R →29
18RBI →37
3SB ←1
.275AVG ←.242
What Each Player's System Trusts
Christian Yelich
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.392 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.289 is 0.065 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Jake Burger
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.307)
Christian Yelich: 8 HR / 52 R. Jake Burger: 15 HR / 44 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).