Rest of Season Projection
ChristianCategoryRafael
8HR →15
53R ←40
45RBI →47
8SB ←0
.210AVG →.230
Current Season
ChristianCategoryRafael
4HR →7
21R →26
18RBI →30
3SB ←0
.275AVG ←.251
What Each Player's System Trusts
Christian Yelich
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.389 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.292 is 0.064 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Rafael Devers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.291 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
Christian Yelich: 8 HR / 53 R. Rafael Devers: 15 HR / 40 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).