Rest of Season Projection
ColeCategoryEzequiel
8HR ←7
42R →45
48RBI →57
3SB →9
.256AVG.257
Current Season
ColeCategoryEzequiel
4HR4
26R ←25
30RBI →32
2SB →5
.250AVG →.299
What Each Player's System Trusts
Cole Young
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.328)
Ezequiel Duran
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.374 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.312 is 0.043 below the surface — regression coming
Cole Young: 8 HR / 42 R. Ezequiel Duran: 7 HR / 45 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).