Rest of Season Projection
EzequielCategoryKetel
7HR →17
45R →53
57RBI ←53
9SB ←0
.257AVG →.293
Current Season
EzequielCategoryKetel
4HR →10
25R →35
32RBI →35
5SB ←0
.299AVG ←.262
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ezequiel Duran
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.374 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.312 is 0.043 below the surface — regression coming
Ketel Marte
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.266 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Ezequiel Duran: 7 HR / 45 R. Ketel Marte: 17 HR / 53 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).