Rest of Season Projection
ColtonCategoryRyan
11HR ←5
37R ←24
39RBI →54
2SB →5
.204AVG →.229
Current Season
ColtonCategoryRyan
4HR ←3
17R ←9
18RBI →20
1SB →2
.227AVG →.278
What Each Player's System Trusts
Colton Cowser
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.298)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Ryan Vilade
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.324 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.307 is 0.045 below the surface — regression coming
Colton Cowser: 11 HR / 37 R. Ryan Vilade: 5 HR / 24 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).